Is the Real Estate Market in the decline or just changing?

First it was Open Door that let go of 35% of its employees. This was followed by Zillow cutting loose of 25% of it work force. Last Wednesday 12/01, Better.com laid off about 9% of its staff. Back in October Keller Williams Mortgage Group, Keller Mortgage laid off about 150 employees.

While this may or may not impact your region as much as it will others. This may be an indicator of shifting market conditions. These changes are recent and many of the loans we’re closing today were launched months ago, meaning our current activities may not reflect these recent changes.

Comments invited.

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Open Door and Zillow “miscalculated” (so they say) the rehab market and began hemorrhaging money on those deals. I don’t understand why they thought they could sweep in and corner the rehab market when the numbers clearly showed that they’d break even at best. I ran some numbers and studied this phenomenon when they first started doing it and it simply didn’t make sense to me. So, now they’re out.

I look at real estate in much the same way as I look at the notary business. Everyone getting in seems to think they’ll make a lot of money because there’s just soooo many houses. Newbies everywhere, trying all kinds of schemes and methods to out-do everyone else. Look at that dopey “Ideal Agent” TV ad for example. LISTEN closely to what the guy says. . .“A 2% commission”. “Our System”, “Excellent Agents”, Excellent Service". What the heck is new or special about any of the things he’s offering??? What “system”.

Look, my wife is an experienced and in-demand realtor and she provides all those things without being in Ideal Agent’s “system”. The guy hawking that pap is full of a bunch of nuthin’. And, I promise you, Ideal Agent will be gone before too long. Just like “Purple Bricks” - remember them???

This is just a time of weeding out all the poseurs in the real estate business. The market is tight with not a lot of inventory because, although people may want to sell their homes and move, unless they move to another state, there’s nowhere to go. They can’t take their tax base with them and they’ve invested in their existing home so much, that it’s sometimes hard to leave their area. More mature homeowners may be nearing payoff after 30 years of a mortgage and they’re thinking, do I really want to leave when we’re about to NOT have a house payment anymore?

No, friends, there’s no trend lurking out there. It’s simply the market shifting and old marketing ploys that have played out. Only the strong survive.

JOMO

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Many of us have ridden the refi wave for quite a while now, making decent money by carefully choosing only those offers which are profitable. Most of us are also hooked up with various and sundry national title companies and signing services. Much of their business also comes from refi work. At some point, this business is going to dry up to nothing, in a very short period of time. Interest rates were at record lows, have since risen, are going to continue to rise–and many people no longer stand to benefit from a refi. Those looking to cash out may still have an opportunity, but it’s not going to be the giveaway cash that we’ve seen the past few years.

So what does that mean, when this refinancing business dries up? LOL–I’ll go back to playing golf again. The rest of you–I do hope you have a fallback to take care of your monthly nut, including you 65 NNA certified agents living within a 5 mile radius of my home.

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The good news about us is that we are very nimble…we work with many clients that provide us with different types of work. We have refi, seller package, home purchase, GNW…

Work has never 100% dried up in this business. Everyone tries to portray a doomsday that never seems to happen. My advice to newbies is to go direct and rely less on SS

If realtors, appraisers, and loan officers are in demand… we will be in demand. It just depends on how each notary positions their business

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I’ve noticed an increase in advertising that wasn’t there in the beginning. Usually when the golden goose starts to tarnish, advertising rises.

The Entrepreneur personalities often keep on with the daisies and sunshine pitch, which is what we saw in 2007…‘but It’ll be different this time’.

Some of the forces weighing on the market; inflation eating into income faster than can be compensated for with low interest rates. Many taxpayers had trouble taking care of their income taxes. Tax pros are beginning to see a rise in Tax Resolution cases. Not enough homes on the market due to supply chain problems. This contributes to slowing cash velocity in the market. The Fed recent announcement to reduce stimulus programs. Etc…

Those were words spoken in 2005. In 2007 everything changed. Go direct sound great until the local TCs are pestered with notaries trying to get inside. Your advice, while sound, doesn’t work in most markets.

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And LOCATION…location is a big factor. As a service provider, if you are in a very productive county you will be in demand. I’m in the wealthiest county in PA so my advice may be kinda biased

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I just thought about that; that’s why I responded to my inital response.

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Where I’m at is rapidly growing, with high demand for housing that’s driving home prices upward of 40% over last year. One of the problems we have is acquiring materials to build homes. Within 4 miles of my office there are plans for 26,000 new homes and businesses. If the supply chain problems would clear we could really see a boom in construction.

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I was thinking about taking a crack at becoming an appraiser since we have the inside scoop of fees and what AMCs are active in our market from the CDs to diversify my income.

The only thing is that an appraisal assignment takes 2-3 hours after the home inspection. We have it good as we just execute and drop

Did anyone notice “changing” is misspelled?? My 2 cents supply and demand in your area will dictate your business. I’ve been in business Kitsap County Peninsula WA State now for almost 10 years. My experience has seen Notaries drop out of the game. Has its ups and downs. Due to COVID now servicing many clients that are in full care facilities. Who knows what next disease will change the work landscape. Must be flexible.

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I just read that article about the CEO of better.com. He fired 900 people immediately over a zoom call due to “changes” in the market. Yikes!

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Companies like that hire a bunch of people to compete with demand when times are good and get rid of them when they are no longer useful to business due to less demand…That’s why the way we provide for ourselves can be better for us in the end. Our entire livelihood isn’t dependant on 1 man’s self-serving interests.

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That Zoom call had all the warmth and empathy of a dead makrel.

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Did you notice that the double exclamation mark is poor grammar? :laughing:

You’re spot on. We have multiple clients and none of the corporate drama. If we loose one client we have several others to rely on. It’s easier for us to pivot setting up another business so spread the risk.

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My theory is Zillow and Open Door were unable to keep up with the changing market. Sometimes corporate inertia prevents agility.

Exactly. There’s much more freedom in this than any job I’ve had before. It’s the only time in my life I’ve felt that way after all the schooling that amounted to nothing, the pathetic bosses, the sad little cubicles filled with braindead drones clinging to a stability that doesn’t even exist.

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And you have time to grow. When we are working in a 9-5, we lack the time to actually sit back and think about what we want to do. For me, at least now I can take a more macro approach to life instead of chasing the next job or pay raise

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@noblenotary615 When I was doing Biomedical Research I use say corporate leadership was taking 500mg of NoSensital with their morning coffee.

@AMcKoy-Harris I can toss a load of laundry, have lunch in the Park, cut the grass during business hours.

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